## 1. Introduction

This Project is about making an educated guess to derive an unknown password based on hacked password lists (Google: “RockYou”). In this section we will introduce the mathematical framework to handle passwords and develop a simple brute force approach based on* very* unrealistic Assumptions. During this Project these Assumptions will then be weaken to derive in the end a clever method to guess passwords.

### 1.1. Formulation

Let be a password and the random variables the corresponding letters and password length. is the space of all passwords and corresponds to the used alphabet, for example if we allow only for lower case letters then . As usual this forms a discrete probability space given by .

## 2. First Attempts

### 2.1 A first naive approach

Let be the true password. The idea of a brute force search, where every possible password is successive tested, is then to assume that . This means that every possible password is equipropable and the testing order is thus irrelevant. It is obvious that this Assumption is not true in general.

### 2.2 A very simple Educated Guess Procedure

In the next step we will replace this assumption by some less strong assumptions:

- E is distributed with distribution .
- are independent and identically distributed random variables with distribution .
- and are independent.

Under the given Assumptions the best way to “guess” the password is given by the following procedure. Since and are independent we can apply a two step procedure where we first draw some using .Then each is independently drawn using . Since and are unknown they have to be estimated from hacked passwords list which we will denote as .

#### 2.2.1 Checking the password security

Under the given Assumptions it is also possible to estimate the “safeness” of given password . Mathematically this means 1 minus the probability that a certain password is “guessed” by the procedure. The first part, the probability that the “correct” password length is “guessed” is simply given by . The second part can be understood as urn draws with replacement of an urn containing the elements of where the probability to draw a certain element is given by . Thus . Accordingly by Bayes’ theorem: as security index.

#### 2.2.2 Density Estimators

A very simple estimator is based on counting the length of all passwords in . The corresponding estimator is then given by and accordingly .

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